Competition within the Chinese domestic market for diabetes and weight loss drugs will escalate as over 60 advanced-phase pharmaceutical candidates are currently participating in clinical trials, as stated in a recent report.
As many as 20 biosimilars or generics could compete for market share and exert price pressures once Denmark’s Novo Nordisk's semaglutide product faces patent expiration in China next year, predicts Boston-based consulting firm L.E.K. Consulting. The company’s patent is set to expire in 2031 in both Japan and Europe, and in 2032 in the United States, based on information from their most recent annual report.
Helen Chen, who serves as the global co-head of healthcare and life sciences at L.E.K., stated in a report released on May 15th that "the competition within the Chinese market is anticipated to surpass that observed in established markets, with the GLP-1 sector largely controlled by major international pharma firms."
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GLP-1 medications imitate naturally occurring hormones that instruct the pancreas to secrete additional insulin whenever blood sugar levels rise. Additionally, these drugs aid in shedding pounds by decelerating digestion and decreasing hunger.
Thanks to the surge in sales of semaglutide, Novo Nordisk climbed to become the 10th biggest pharmaceutical company globally based on revenue. According to Evaluate, a consulting firm headquartered in London, the corporation’s revenues increased by 25 percent to reach $42.1 billion for the previous year.
Ozempic, a semaglutide formulated for diabetes, was approved in China in 2021. Wegovy, a treatment for weight loss, was approved last year .
Last year, Ozempic ranked as the second highest-grossing medication globally, earning $17.5 billion, following Merck’s leading oncology treatment Keytruda, according to Evaluate.
As we embark on a new chapter in managing metabolic diseases, this upward trajectory has only just started," stated Paul Verdin, who leads consulting and analytics at Evaluate, in a recent April analysis. "In the coming years, firms promoting such transformative offerings will likely lead industry standings.
In February, between 60 to 70 pharmaceutical compounds were in advanced stages—specifically phases two or higher—of clinical testing within Chinese laboratories. These could potentially rival Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide and Indianapolis-based Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, both of which lead globally, according to L.E.K. Consulting.
Of these candidates, approximately half were focused on the weight loss market, whereas eight were designed as oral substitutes for injectable medications. Additionally, about twenty were created to replicate the effects of two or three hormones, aiming for superior clinical results compared to single-drug therapies such as semaglutide, according to L.E.K.
A possible competitor currently in clinical trials is mazdutide. The development and marketing rights for this drug in China have been granted to Innovent Biologics, based in Jiangsu province, by Eli Lilly. Mazdutide mimics the effects of both a gut hormone and glucagon, a substance produced by the pancreas.
Other candidates include Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceutical’s oral GLP-1 medication; United Laboratories International from Hong Kong with a therapy targeting two intestinal hormones and one pancreatic hormone; and Ascletis Pharma based in Hangzhou which has developed a GLP-1 drug for treating obesity.
In October, Eli Lilly announced a $208 million (or 1.5 billion yuan) initiative to upgrade a facility in Suzhou aimed at addressing the increasing demand for medications targeting diabetes and obesity within both Chinese and European markets.
L.E.K. stated that China, which houses the biggest groups of diabetics and obese individuals, has turned into a key battlefield for international drug companies as well as domestic competitors.
The US-based company Viatris, leading a coalition of generic medication manufacturers that reached an agreement over patents with Novo Nordisk concerning semaglutide back in the previous year, might introduce a generic variant of the medicine approximately in 2030, according to a report from US brokerage firm Stifel issued in January.
The mainland Chinese market ranks as the second-largest globally for drugs, and last year recorded 148 million adult individuals living with diabetes—more than in any other country—as reported by the International Diabetes Federation. Approximately half of this population remained undiagnosed, and projections suggested that the total could increase to around 168 million cases by 2050.
A study featured in The Lancet, a renowned medical journal, indicated that approximately 402 million individuals aged 25 and above on the Chinese mainland were considered overweight or obese in 2021, representing about 38% of the total population at that time. This percentage marked an increase from 15.8% observed back in 1990 and projections suggested this number could rise dramatically to 61% by 2050.
According to Grand View Research based in San Francisco, the GLP-1 drug market in China is expected to grow threefold to $4.7 billion by 2030 from $1.43 billion last year.
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